The Anti-Renaissance Man

A crucial factor in any election is the enthusiasm of one’s base. The American electorate does not have a great turnout history, usually topping out around 50%. While more people in the U.S. are registered Democrats, Republicans tend to experience better turnout due to their older, whiter, and wealthier constituents. Convincing someone that you are the best choice (or the best of all evils) is one thing. It is another entirely to get them to get up during the work week, on a Tuesday (this in and of itself is stupid and a topic for another post) and go vote. I argue that if there is any candidate in the race that could galvanize and excite the conservative base, its Rick Santorum.

Mitt Romney does not excite conservatives. That’s just a fact. After effectively running for the last 5-6 years, he still appears to face serious resistance from evangelical voters in the south; a MAJOR voting bloc for Republicans. Even his wins in NH and NV did not exceed his level of support from 2008. It could be argued that Romney doesn’t need to do extremely well in the South because so few of those contests are up for grabs in the general election. However, states like Georgia and even…gasp…Texas are not sure bets. But more importantly, the base of a party sets the tone for the election. An excited base will be more eager to fund-raise, stake lawn signs, get other people to vote, etc. that have effects felt on the national campaign level.

Rick Santorum certainly has the conservative credentials to carry the south, but what has been most fascinating is his strength in the crucial Midwest. Obviously any polling now needs to be taken with a grain of salt, but surprisingly (or perhaps not) Rick Santorum fairs much better in these states. Santorum not only leads the primary polls in Pennslyvania, already won Minnesota, but is running extremely competitively in Ohio with nowhere near the financial resources of his oppenents. Outside of Michigan, Romney and his millions of dollars don’t seem to be connecting to the “average Joe.” Almost paradoxically, in the newest polling out of Florida from Rasmussen, Rick Santorum is running closer to Barack Obama than Romney, despite Mitt winning the state overwhelmingly. I wonder if voters went to the polls voting for who they thought they should and not who they really wanted to.

We will know more after super Tuesday (Newt Gingrich’s chance to seize control) but it looks like the GOP might be in for the long haul.

I don’t claim to understand the inner workings Republican Party better than I do the Democratic one. After all, I affiliate strongly with another political party, but I do pride myself with an overall pretty solid understanding of the American political arena. For all it’s faults and successes, nothing in a democratic system excites me more than an election, a spectacle filled with uncertainty, political cunning, over the top promises, a flood of TV ads, and debates seemingly every other day. This election cycle however, is the first time in my (politically active) life that the my party has its nominee. Unlike in 2008, I am able to just observe from a distance, but what I’ve seen has been pretty remarkable.

Traditionally the GOP has been a party with a line of succession. It seems like each cycle, they have a presumptive nominee, or at least a clear front runner from the get go. This was obviously not the case this year. As much as the media may have wanted to establish Mitt Romney as the front runner, which was acceptable given he was the “silver medal” candidate in 2008, his Massachusetts demons continue to haunt him, mostly in the southern, evangelical, and most conservative states; states filled with people that the next Republican challenger needs to ignite.

It is often said, that the fringes of a political party nominate, and the moderates elect, and any challenger to Barack Obama will be fighting an uphill battle. If the economic situation continues to improve, pending a serious blunder, it will only get harder. Mitt Romney is the most electable, but does he have the best chance to win? I could argue that Rick Santorum might be the GOP’s best chance at defeating Obama this November.

Over the next couple of days I’m going to flesh out this idea in a sort of thought experiment, play devil’s advocate, and list 3 reasons why Rick Santorum the superior Republican candidate……… and “no” I can’t believe what I just said either.

Giants:      27

Patriots:  21 

MVP: Eli Manning 

Mitt Romney     44%

Newt Gingrich   30%

Rick Santorum  13%

Ron Paul             12% 

Don't forget about Tunisa, the origin of the Arab Spring

my ability to procrastinate for allowing me to put off writing a paper, and instead jump into the world of tumblr. Also, “tumblr” should really be added to its own spell check system.